Dampak Perang Rusia–Ukraina terhadap Harga Minyak Dunia dan Abnormal Return Saham Migas di Indonesia
Keywords:
Russia–Ukraine War, Global Oil Prices, Abnormal Return, Oil and Gas StocksAbstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on global oil prices and its implications for the abnormal returns of oil and gas sector stocks in Indonesia. The hypotheses were tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, Linear Regression, and Paired Sample T-Test. The results show that the Russia–Ukraine war had a significant impact on the increase in global oil prices (p < 0.05). However, no significant effect was found between oil prices and the abnormal returns of oil and gas stocks, and the war also did not demonstrate a direct impact on those returns. These findings indicate that although the global market responds to geopolitical turmoil with surging oil prices, the impact on the performance of Indonesia’s oil and gas stock market is not directly reflected in significant abnormal returns. The practical implication of these findings suggests that investors and policymakers should consider more dominant domestic factors influencing oil and gas stock performance, rather than relying solely on global geopolitical dynamics.
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